马克龙带来一线曙光

There are politicians and there are leaders who change the weather. France’s Fifth Republic has had its share of politicians. In Emmanuel Macron it has now chosen a rainmaker as president.

这个世界既有普通的政界人士，也有可以呼风唤雨的领袖。法兰西第五共和国有过不少政界人士。埃马纽埃尔?马克龙(Emmanuel Macron)的当选意味着，这个国家选出了一位呼风唤雨的总统。

At this point, it is almost mandatory to list the ifs and buts. France is a deeply divided nation (I thought that was what happened at elections). A touch above a third of the voters felt driven to cast their ballot in favour of Marine Le Pen’s noxious National Front. Mr Macron’s En Marche! has yet to win seats in the National Assembly. Powerful trade unions are lined up against any proposals for economic modernisation. Remember Barack Obama’s “Yes We Can”? Well, Americans have now put Donald Trump in the White House.

此时此刻，列出“如果”和“但是”几乎是强制义务。法国如今是一个分裂的国家（选举的时候，难道不是都会发生这种情况吗？）。略高于三分之一的选民竟然有动力投票支持马琳?勒庞(Marine Le Pen)的令人讨厌的国民阵线(National Front)。马克龙的“前进”(En Marche!)尚未在国民议会(National Assembly)赢得席位。强大的工会正联合起来，反对任何推动经济现代化的提议。还记得巴拉克?奥巴马(Barack Obama)那句“是的，我们可以”(Yes We Can)吗？没错，美国人现在让唐纳德?特朗普(Donald Trump)入主了白宫。

Cavils and caveats are inevitable, but their constant enunciation even before Mr Macron has crossed the threshold of the Elysee Palace speaks to the collapse of faith in politics. The ancien regime is gripped by fatalism — watch Britain’s moderate Labour MPs hurl themselves over the cliff rather than confront their hard-left leader Jeremy Corbyn. If nothing else, Mr Macron’s victory ought to restore a measure of confidence to politics, in France and beyond. Leaders with the courage of their convictions can change things.

挑刺和警告是不可避免的，但它们甚至在马克龙还没有进入爱丽舍宫(Elysee Palace)之前就没完没了地出炉，表明人们对政治的信心已经坍塌。宿命论笼罩着“旧制度”——看看英国工党(Labour)的温和议员们宁可眼看着自己在即将举行的大选中遭遇惨败，也不愿挑战该党的极左领导人杰里米?科尔宾(Jeremy Corbyn)，就会明白这一点。即使没有什么别的意义，马克龙的胜利应该会在一定程度上恢复人们对政治的信心，无论在法国还是在其他国家都是如此。有勇气坚持自己信念的领导人，可以改变现状。

The digital age holds other temptations for commentators. It too often demands that the world be described in grand sweeps. Thus Mr Trump’s elevation to the US presidency signed the death warrant of liberal democracy. Mr Macron’s spectacular success has brought it back to life. The real world is not quite so obligingly neat.

对评论员而言，数字时代还有着其他诱惑。这个时代过于频繁地要求以恢弘的笔墨来描述世界。于是，特朗普当选美国总统就是签下了自由民主体制的死刑执行令。而马克龙的巨大成功让自由民主体制起死回生。现实世界并不是那么泾渭分明。

In a continent drenched in pessimism, Mr Macron’s victory should be celebrated as indeed spectacular. Not much more than a year ago he was a minister in Fran?ois Hollande’s failing administration. He dumped the president and the Socialist party to create the En Marche! movement. That took resolve. Still more impressive than the fact of his success was the substance and manner of his campaign.

在一个沉浸于悲观情绪的大陆，马克龙的胜利确实应该被当作巨大成功来庆祝。一年多以前，他在弗朗索瓦?奥朗德(Fran?ois Hollande)摇摇欲坠的政府担任部长。他抛弃了奥朗德和社会党(Parti socialiste)，转而创建“前进”运动。此举需要决心。比他的胜选更令人印象深刻的是他竞选的内容和方式。

Politicians have run scared of the populists — afraid to defend the open, tolerant internationalism that has underpinned European peace and prosperity. Mr Macron made no such apologies. He put openness, Europeanism and economic modernisation at the heart of his campaign. Europe’s anthem Ode to Joy played at his victory celebration. Contrast this with the fearful nationalism that compels Theresa May’s British government to haul down the EU flag.

当今政界人士被民粹主义吓坏。以至于不敢捍卫支撑了欧洲和平和繁荣的开放、宽容的国际主义。马克龙则充满了自信。他把开放、欧洲主义和经济现代化置于竞选纲领的核心。在他赢得大选的庆祝活动上响起欧盟盟歌《欢乐颂》(Ode to Joy)。与之形成对比的是，胆怯的民族主义迫使特里萨?梅(Theresa May)领导的英国政府降下欧盟旗帜。

The president-elect set out the pivotal choice of our age, that between competing and retreating — the French choice between exceptionalism and Poujadism. He won. More Europe means more France. Those who quibble about the margin of his victory might recall that Mr Trump lost the popular vote to Hillary Clinton and the Brexiters won by only a sliver.

这位当选总统阐明了我们这个时代的关键选择：在竞争和退却之间——对法国来说，则是例外主义和布热德主义（Poujadism，20世纪50年代法国一个右翼政治运动，主要得到中产阶级支持——译者注）之间的选择。他赢了。更多欧洲意味着更多法国。那些对他的票数优势吹毛求疵的人，最好记住特朗普获得的总票数少于希拉里?克林顿(Hillary Clinton)，而英国退欧也只是以微弱优势胜出。

In Washington this week, I heard comparisons drawn with Mr Trump. Both presidents in their way are insider-outsiders; both upended their respective political establishments. And, if you want to continue the analogy, Mr Trump has found himself constrained by realities just as Mr Macron will now confront the harsh truths of a fractured France.

上周在华盛顿，我听到了有人把马克龙和特朗普相提并论。两位总统都以各自的方式既是圈内人，又是圈外人；二人都颠覆了各自国家的政治体制。此外，如果你想继续这种比较的话，特朗普已发现自己受制于现实，正如马克龙如今将面对法国陷于分裂的残酷事实。

Superficially attractive, these parallels say very little. Mr Trump arrived at the White House with no more than a set of prejudices, as seen in the capricious chaos that reigns in his administration. You do not have to share Mr Macron’s convictions to see he has a strategy.

这些相同之处表面上夺人眼球，但说明不了什么问题。特朗普只是带着一系列偏见入主白宫，这体现于他领导的行政当局所表现出的任性混乱。相比之下，你不需要认同马克龙的信念，就可以看出他有一套战略。

European democracy now has two powerful champions. Not so long ago Angela Merkel’s unapologetic defence of liberal values during the migration crisis threatened to break her grip on power. Now, all the signs are the German chancellor is heading back for a fourth term in the coming autumn elections.

如今欧洲民主有两大支持者。不久前，安格拉?默克尔(Angela Merkel)在移民危机期间毫无悔意地维护了自由主义价值观，差点因此被赶下台。如今，一切迹象都表明，在今年秋天的大选中，这位德国总理将获得第四任期。

Plenty of tussles await Europe’s two leading politicians. I have no doubt that Ms Merkel will cling to the economic orthodoxy that can suffocate weaker economies. She has already warned that “German support cannot replace French policymaking”. Mr Macron will struggle at once to push through his reforms at home and persuade Berlin that a monetary union needs an economic framework. But argument and compromise have always been the way of Franco-German co-operation.

很多角力等待着欧洲两位主要的领导人。我毫不怀疑，默克尔将坚持可能绞杀较弱经济体的经济正统。她已经警告“德国的支持不能取代法国的政策制定”。马克龙将竭力同时在两方面发力：推动国内改革，说服柏林方面货币联盟需要一个经济框架。但是，争论和妥协一直是法德合作的方式。

The continent’s two leading powers are now pulling in the same direction. For Mr Macron the reinvigoration of France and the restoration of faith in European collaboration are indivisible. Ms Merkel has long complained that, in the absence of a serious French partner, Germany has carried the burden of European leadership. Mr Macron’s prospectus comes at a price. But Berlin cannot afford to let this opportunity slip.

欧洲两个主要大国如今向着同一个方向努力。对于马克龙来说，重振法国和恢复人们对欧洲合作的信念是不可分割的。默克尔则长久抱怨称，没有一个像样的法国伙伴，使德国独自承担领导欧盟的重担。马克龙的登场将会有代价。但德国负担不起让这个机会溜走的后果。

Mr Trump caught a tide. The financial crash, stagnating incomes, the insecurities and dislocations of technological advance and globalisation and, yes, the insouciant indifference of elites to the fate of the-left behind, has corroded faith in the institutions of liberal democracy. The US president has no answers to the challenges. To the contrary, he heads an administration in thrall to its own set of plutocrats.

特朗普抓住了时势。金融危机、收入停滞、全球化和技术进步带来的不安全感和错位、以及精英阶层对那些被抛在后面的人群的漠不关心，腐蚀了人们对自由民主制度的信心。美国总统没有应对这些挑战的答案。相反，他领导的行政当局受制于自己的一批财阀。

Mr Macron presents a moment of optimism. He is a reminder that voters are still prepared to listen to a reasoned case. His success is not predestined, but nor is his failure. There is life yet in liberal democracy. The Brexit rupture aside, Europe looks in better shape than it has for some time. Now it has the promise of leadership.

马克龙带来了一个令人乐观的时刻。他提醒世人，选民仍然愿意倾听理性的声音。他并非命中注定一定成功，但失败也不是他无法摆脱的宿命。自由民主体制仍有生命力。撇开英国退欧这一割裂，欧洲目前的状况看起来好于一段时间以来。现在它有了领导力的希望。