德国围绕欧洲未来展开辩论

The emergence of Martin Schulz as the centre-left SociAl Democrats’ candidate for chancellor has fundamentally altered the dynamics of German politics. It is also changing the debate in Germany on inequality and the future of Europe in ways that will have a significant impact across the continent.

马丁?舒尔茨(Martin Schulz)成为中左翼社民党(SPD)的总理候选人，从根本上改变了德国政治局势。它还改变了德国国内围绕不平等和欧洲未来展开的辩论，将对整个欧洲大陆产生重大影响。

Germany is regarded as an economic success story. Unemployment is at its lowest level since reunification in 1990; the trade surplus has reached a record high. And the government has just registered a fiscal surplus of Euro24bn, or 0.8 per cent of gross domestic product.

德国被视为经济成功的典范。失业率处于1990年两德统一以来的最低水平；贸易顺差达到创纪录新高。德国政府刚刚录得240亿欧元的财政盈余，相当于国内生产总值(GDP)的0.8%。

Yet, for all the good economic news, polls show that 70 per cent of Germans believe that inequality is excessive.

然而，尽管有这些经济上的好消息，但民调显示，70%的德国人认为不平等程度过于严重。

Data show that Germany is a highly polarised society, with the bottom 40 per cent of households having the same or a lower real income as 25 years ago.

数据显示，德国是一个高度极化的社会，处于底端的40%的家庭的实际收入徘徊于、甚至低于25年前的水平。

Although full-time, permanent employment has increased, so has the number of precarious, part-time jobs. The number of working poor — those in work but earning less than 60 per cent of the median income — has doubled from 4.8 per cent in 2005 to 9.6 per cent today.

尽管永久性的全职就业人数增加，但不稳定兼职工作人数也出现了增长。穷忙族(working poor)——那些虽然有工作，但收入不到中位数收入60%的人——的比例从2005年的4.8%增长一倍，至9.6%。

In short, Germany has a two-speed economy with a widening gap between successful export and tradeable sectors on the one hand, and services and nontradeable sectors on the other. Levels of social mobility and equality of opportunity are also poor.

简言之，德国拥有双速经济，一方是蓬勃发展的出口和可贸易部门，另一方是服务业和不可贸易部门，两者间的差距越来越大。社会流动性水平和机会平等程度同样很糟糕。

It not surprising, therefore, that a lively debate has begun on the effects of the “Agenda 2010” reforms deregulating the labour market and reforming social security, which were introduced in 2003 by the SPD government of Gerhard Schr?der. Ironically, Chancellor Angela Merkel’s Christian Democrats praise Agenda 2010 as a success, while elements in the SPD criticise it.

因此，并不令人意外的是，人们围绕“2010议程”(Agenda 2010)改革的效果展开了激烈辩论——这些改革是2003年由格哈德?施罗德(Gerhard Schr?der)领导的社民党政府推行的，旨在解除对劳动力市场的监管并改革社保制度。具有讽刺意味的是，德国总理安格拉?默克尔(Angela Merkel)所在的基民盟(CDU)认为“2010议程”取得了成功，而社民党的某些人批评它。

Last week, Mr Schulz promised to lengthen the duration of unemployment benefits and to reduce the number of precarious job arrangements if he is elected.

上周，舒尔茨承诺，如果他当选总理的话，将延长失业救济金发放期，并减少不稳定的就业安排。

However, this debate on the merits of Agenda 2010 ignores the distinctive challenges that Germany faces. The country needs significant investment in a more inclusive education system and a revamp of family-friendly policies designed to create opportunities for women and other groups. It also needs to deregulate the services sectors to foster investment, productivity and incomes, as well as strengthening collective bargaining agreements.

然而，围绕“2010议程”利弊的这场辩论忽视了德国面临的独特挑战。德国需要大举投资于更具包容性的教育体系，并且改善有利于家庭的政策，为女性和其他群体创造机会。它还需要解除对服务业的监管，以促进投资、生产率和收入，以及加强集体谈判协议。

Meanwhile, the CDU has begun to attack Mr Schulz for his positions on the EU and the eurozone, particularly his advocacy of “eurobonds” as a way of relieving the debt crisis in the single currency area.

与此同时，基民盟已开始攻击舒尔茨关于欧盟和欧元区的立场，尤其是他呼吁推出“欧元区债券”来缓解欧元区的债务危机。

A debate in Germany on the future of Europe and the country’s role in it is certainly overdue. Europe was a non-issue in the 2013 federal elections for the mainstream parties, largely because the CDU and SPD feared that discussing it would play into the hands of the rightwing, Eurosceptic Alternative for Germany party.

当然，德国早就应该围绕欧洲的未来以及本国在其中的角色展开辩论。在2013年的联邦议院选举中，欧洲对主流政党根本不是一个议题，这在很大程度上是因为基民盟和社民党担心，讨论欧洲问题将会让右翼政党——对欧洲持怀疑态度的德国新选择党(Alternative for Germany)有机可乘。

There are risks for the rest of Europe, too. While Germany has traditionally been strongly pro-European, in recent years many in the governing parties have criticised the policies pursued by other EU member states and the European institutions, including the European Central Bank’s monetary policy.

欧洲其他国家也存在风险。尽管德国传统上坚决支持欧洲，但在最近几年，执政联盟政党中的许多人批评了欧盟其他成员国以及欧洲机构推行的政策，包括欧洲央行(ECB)的货币政策。

The return of Mr Schulz to domestic German politics has certainly shaken things up. The central question now is whether pro-European voices in both major parties will prevail in the debate he has opened up.

舒尔茨回归国内政坛（之前他是欧洲议会议长——译者注）肯定起到了撼动作用。现在的核心问题是，两大主流政党的亲欧派是否会在他开启的辩论中占上风。

The answer hinges on several factors, including the outcome of the French elections, the Brexit negotiations and whether the threats made by US President Donald Trump will push Germany to align more closely with its European neighbours.

答案取决于多个因素，包括法国选举结果、英国退欧谈判以及美国总统唐纳德?特朗普(Donald Trump)带来的威胁会不会推动德国与邻国更加团结。

The writer is president of DIW Berlin, a think-tank

本文作者是智库柏林德国经济研究所(DIW Berlin)的所长