不断升温的互相谩骂 令人不安的美国大选
The wonderful thing about elections is they end with a decision.
选举的好处在于最终会分出胜负。
The divisions remain.
分歧仍然存在。
But for the time being the question of who governs is settled.
但就目前而言，由谁执政的问题已经解决。
This year’s US presidential election is on course to be an exception.
今年的美国总统大选即将成为一个例外。
Even if Hillary Clinton wins the US electoral college by a big margin, hers would be the most grudging landslide in history.
即便希拉里•克林顿(Hillary Clinton)在选举人团投票中以巨大优势胜出，这也将是历史上最勉强的压倒性多数。
A large chunk of Americans will be receptive to Donald Trump’s claim that the result was rigged.
很多美国人会接受唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)的说法：大选结果受到操纵。
Many of Mrs Clinton’s voters will have backed her only reluctantly on the grounds that anything would be better than Mr Trump.
支持希拉里的很多选民只会不情愿地支持她，因为什么都比特朗普当选总统强。
She will enjoy no honeymoon.
她将不享有蜜月期。
Speculation about a one-term presidency will begin almost as soon as she takes office.
她几乎一上任就要面临她只会当一任总统的猜测。
Anyone who doubts this should remember President Barack Obama’s fate.
任何质疑这点的人应记住美国总统巴拉克•奥巴马(Barack Obama)的命运。
Now on the home stretch to retirement, Mr Obama he has spent the past six years failing to persuade a hostile Congress to act.
如今总统任期已近尾声的奥巴马，在过去6年一直未能说服对他有敌意的国会采取行动。
From annual budgets to early-learning legislation, almost all of his efforts have come to naught.
从年度预算到早教立法，他的几乎所有努力都毫无结果。
His biggest legacies — healthcare reform and Wall Street regulation — came within his first two years, when he had a Democratic majority.
他最重要的遗产（医疗改革和华尔街监管）都是在他任期的头两年实现的，当时民主党占国会多数席位。
Even now Republicans vow to repeal both laws at the first opportunity.
尽管这两件事已订立为法律，共和党人仍发誓一有机会就会废除这两部法律。
This year, Mr Obama has been unable even to push through emergency help for areas affected by the Zika virus and a modest tightening of gun safety checks following a series of massacres.
今年，奥巴马甚至无法促使国会同意对寨卡病毒(Zika)肆虐的地区实施紧急援助或是在一系列屠杀事件后略微收紧枪支安全管制。
That is without facing re-election.
这还是在不面临竞选连任压力的情况下。
What chance would Mrs Clinton have?
希拉里能有多大机会呢？
The answer depends on two things.
答案取决于两点。
The first is whether Democrats can regain control of Congress in November.
首先是民主党能否在今年11月重新获得国会控制权。
There is a good chance they can recapture a thin Senate majority — somewhere around 51 seats to 49.
他们有很大的机会重新在参议院赢得微弱多数——大概是51席（民主党）对49席的局面。
But taking the House of Representatives is a taller order.
但拿下众议院就比较困难了。
The chances that Democrats can regain both chambers, a prerequisite for governing in today’s climate, are thus slim.
因此，民主党重新攻下两院（这是在当前情况下执政的必备条件）的机会颇为渺茫。
The second is how Republicans interpreted a defeat for Mr Trump.
其次是共和党人如何解读特朗普的失败。
Would they recognise the time had finally come to turn the party into a demographic big tent? If so, Mrs Clinton may be able to find enough middle ground to push through big changes, such as tax reform and an immigration overhaul.
他们会不会承认将该党变成一个人口大帐篷(big tent)的时刻已终于来临？如果是这样的话，希拉里或许能够找到足够多的中间地带推行大规模改革，例如税收改革和移民改革。
Or would the hardline conservatives, led by Ted Cruz, the Texan senator who gave Mr Trump the biggest run for his money in the primaries, see a chance to resume Tea Party-era congressional brinkmanship? In that case, Mrs Clinton’s agenda would stand little chance of daylight.
抑或以特德•克鲁兹（Ted Cruz，这位德克萨斯州参议员在共和党初选中是特朗普的劲敌）为首的强硬保守派会不会看到复活茶党(Tea Party)时代国会边缘政策的机会？在这种情况下，希拉里的议程将很难有见光的机会。
My money would be on the latter.
我赌会是后一种情况。
To be sure, a big Trump defeat would embolden pragmatic Republicans to warn about their party’s fate in California, which is now in a permanent minority in a state with a non-white majority.
当然，特朗普的惨败将鼓励务实的共和党人就该党在加州的命运发出警告，在这个非白人占人口大多数的州，共和党现在已成为永久性少数党派。
California’s present is America’s future.
加州的现在就是美国的未来。
What happened there could prefigure the national Republican party’s decline.
那里出现的情况可能预示着共和党在整个美国的衰落。
But that is the point reformers made after the party’s last defeat in 2012, when they urged it to cease the intolerant rhetoric about gay people and women’s reproductive rights and extend an olive branch to Hispanic Americans.
但是，这是改革派在2012年共和党上一次失败后提出的观点——当时改革派敦促共和党停止针对同性恋以及女性生育自由的偏狭言论，并向拉丁裔美国人伸出橄榄枝。
The party’s grass roots was obviously unswayed by the autopsy since it nominated Mr Trump.
共和党基层显然对这一剖析并不买账，因为他们提名了特朗普。
It is hard to see how Republican pragmatists would be able to convince an embittered Trump base, which believed Mrs Clinton had stolen the election, to abandon its strongest beliefs.
目前很难看出共和党的务实主义者会如何说服特朗普愤怒的支持者——他们认为希拉里在大选中作弊——放弃其最坚定的信念。
Mr Cruz, on the other hand, is too clever a politician to ask them to do that.
另一方面，克鲁兹是一位非常聪明的政客，他不会让他们这么做。
A Trump defeat would sharply improve his chances of winning his party’s crown in 2020.
特朗普落选会大大增加克鲁兹2020年赢得共和党党魁的机会。
For anyone who is sick of America’s permanent election, I have some discouraging news: it really is permanent.
对于所有厌恶美国大选周而复始的人，我有一些令人沮丧的消息：大选确实是永不停息的。
The next cycle has already begun.
下一轮选战已经开始。
The opening shot was at Mr Trump’s convention in Cleveland, in which Mr Cruz refused to endorse the Republican nominee.
打响选战第一枪的地方是特朗普在克利夫兰举行的共和党代表大会，克鲁兹在会上拒绝为这位共和党提名总统候选人背书。
Instead he urged an almost unanimously booing hall to vote your conscience in November.
相反，他敦促选民在11月本着良知投票，这几乎引起了在场所有人的一致嘘声。
Mr Cruz’s non-endorsement of Mr Trump was dramatic political theatre.
克鲁兹不为特朗普背书是一出戏剧性的政治秀。
With the hindsight of a Trump defeat, it will start to look prescient — even courageous — just as Mr Cruz intended.
等特朗普败选后，人们回过头来看这件事，会认为此举颇具先见之明、甚至颇具勇气——正如克鲁兹所愿。
Mr Cruz has a head-start on his potentially biggest rival, Paul Ryan, speaker of the House of Representatives, whose timid attempts at legislative compromise with Democrats have caused him to lose his halo among conservatives.
相比最大的潜在对手——众议院议长保罗•瑞安(Paul Ryan)，克鲁兹占得先机。瑞安在与民主党人的立法妥协上谨小慎微的尝试，使得他在保守派中间失去了光环。
Mr Cruz will also have an edge on Marco Rubio, the Florida senator, whose chances of re-election in November are touch and go.
克鲁兹相比佛罗里达州参议员马尔科•鲁比奥(Marco Rubio)也拥有优势，后者能否在11月获得连任面临极大不确定性。
Either way, the contest is in motion.
不管怎样，竞赛正在进行。
Being nice to Mrs Clinton will be held up as a disqualification.
善待希拉里的人会被认为应该出局。
Blocking her initiatives will be seen as a credential.
阻止她的各项计划将被视为可堪重任的凭据。
By large margins Republican voters say Mrs Clinton is dishonest — as do a minority of Democrats.
大多数共和党选民称希拉里不诚实——少数民主党选民也这样认为。
In time all political trends come to an end.
一切政治趋势都有完结的时候。
Unfortunately for Mrs Clinton, America’s deep polarisation — and the breakdown of the Republican party — has yet to run its course.
对于希拉里来说遗憾的是，美国严重的两极分化——以及共和党的分裂——还在继续。
Mr Trump’s nomination has probably extended the agony.
特朗普获得提名很可能延长了这一痛苦的过程。
Since he has adopted unorthodox positions, including support for current levels of entitlement social security and Medicare spending, conservatives will be able to say: I told you so: we strayed from our principles by nominating an immoral big spender from New York.
因为他采取了非正统的立场（包括支持当前的福利社会保障水平和联邦医疗保险(Medicare)支出），保守派可以说：我告诉过你们：提名一个不道德的纽约大富豪让我们偏离了自己的原则。
That will be Mr Cruz’s pitch.
这将是克鲁兹的说辞，也将令希拉里头疼。
It will also be Mrs Clinton’s bane.
无论她大胜还是险胜，她都将接手一个两败俱伤的烂摊子。
Whether she wins small or big, she will inherit a poisoned well.
