如何结束叙利亚内战 We must compromise with evil in Syria

A while back, I had a discussion with a prominent member of the Syrian opposition. Perhaps, I suggested tentatively, the rise of Islamist extremism in Syria meant that the Assad regime now represented the lesser evil. The reply I received was absolutely firm: “There is nothing worse than Assad. He is absolute evil.”

不久前，我与叙利亚反对派的一名重要成员进行了一番讨论。我试探地说，伊斯兰极端主义在叙利亚崛起，或许意味着，阿萨德政权如今是为害相对较轻的那个恶魔了。对方非常坚定地回答说：“没有什么比阿萨德更坏。他是绝对的恶魔。”

It is easy to understand that point of view. Most of the more than 220,000 people estimated to have died in the Syrian war have been killed by the Assad regime. The millions of refugees outside the country have, in large part, fled the regime. The Syrian government has shown no compunction in killing civilians and has used barrel bombs and chemical weapons, disappearances and torture. The Assad regime has also been noticeably more eager to attack the Syrian moderates than the jihadis.

他的这种态度很容易理解。估计已有超过22万人死于叙利亚内战，其中大多数是被阿萨德政权杀害的。逃亡国外的数百万难民相当大程度上都是为了逃离阿萨德政权。叙利亚政府在杀害平民时没有一点良心不安，他们还使用过桶装炸弹(barrel bomb)和化学武器，让人莫名失踪，施行酷刑。阿萨德政权也明显比圣战分子更迫切想要攻击叙利亚温和派。

For these reasons, I have always shrunk back from the idea that the Assad regime could be any part of the solution in Syria. But I have now changed my mind.

出于这些原因，我一直不敢设想这样一种方案，即让阿萨德政权成为叙利亚问题解决方案的一部分。但现在我的想法变了。

There are many evil forces on the loose in Syria — including the Assad government, the jihadis of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (Isis) and groups linked to al-Qaeda. But the biggest evil of the lot is the civil war that continues to leave death and destruction in its wake. The overriding goal must be to end the war and to persuade outside forces to back a peace settlement, rather than fuelling the conflict. A diplomatic solution clearly has to involve the regime and, almost certainly, President Bashar al-Assad .

叙利亚境内散布着许多邪恶势力——包括阿萨德政府、“伊拉克与黎凡特伊斯兰国”(Isis)圣战分子以及与基地组织(al-Qaeda)有关联的各种组织。但其中最坏的恶魔是不断带来死亡和破坏的叙利亚内战。压倒其他一切目标的那个目标必须是结束内战、并说服外部力量支持一个实现和平的方案，而非加剧冲突。任何外交解决方案显然必须包括阿萨德政权，并几乎必然地也要包括总统巴沙尔阿萨德(Bashar al-Assad)。

For many years, the west’s preferred outcome in Syria has been a victory by the moderate Syrian opposition. But the idea that the moderates can win a three-cornered military fight with the Assad regime and the jihadis and then hold on to power in Syria is a fantasy.

多年来，西方希望在叙利亚看到的结果是温和的叙利亚反对派获得胜利。但认为温和派能在与阿萨德政权及圣战分子三者之间的军事斗争中获得胜利、进而在叙利亚牢牢掌权的想法是痴人说梦。

There are liberal and democratic forces in Syria. But they are not going to win on the battlefield. Their only chance of getting somewhere is if a political process can be started. That means establishing a ceasefire and working towards UN-sponsored elections.

叙利亚也有自由和民主的力量。但他们不会在战场上获胜。只有启动政治进程才是他们有所成就的唯一机会。这意味着实现停火，并向联合国支持下的大选推进。

Some in the west will object that this means getting around the negotiating table with people who have committed horrible acts of evil. True enough. But we have done it before in the interests of peace. The conflict in Cambodia was ended by a UN-sponsored peace process in 1991 in which the Khmer Rouge — responsible for the Cambodian genocide — took part.

西方一些人肯定会反对这样做，认为这意味着与那些曾犯下可怕恶行的人一起坐到谈判桌前。的确如此。但我们有过为了实现和平而这样做的先例。1991年联合国支持下的和平进程结束了柬埔寨内战，而应该对柬埔寨种族灭绝罪行负责的红色高棉(Khmer Rouge)也参与了这一进程。

As with Syria today, the various sides in the Cambodian conflict had powerful external backers — including China, Russia, the US, Vietnam and Thailand. Ultimately, however, these foreign powers, for all their rivalries, were prepared to work together to end the war.

像今天的叙利亚一样，柬埔寨内战各方都有强大的外部支持者——包括中国、俄罗斯、美国、越南和泰国。然而，最终这些外国势力都摒弃前嫌、愿意为结束这场战争而合作。

Ending the war in Syria will have to involve a similar willingness to make “immoral” compromises in the pursuit of a moral end. These compromises will have to be made by both external and internal forces. There can be no total victory for the Assad regime or the opposition, or for their external supporters in Iran, Russia, Saudi Arabia and the US.

结束叙利亚内战将不得不需要类似的决心——为了追求道德的目标而做出“不道德”的妥协。叙利亚境内和境外的势力都必须做出妥协。没有任何一方可获得完全的胜利，不论是阿萨德政权还是反对派，还是他们的外部支持者（伊朗、俄罗斯、沙特阿拉伯和美国）。

The strongest objection to a “peace process” is not that it is immoral, but that it is unrealistic. Isis’s total rejection of the international system and dreams of a worldwide caliphate makes the group an unlikely negotiating partner. For that reason, foreign powers — including the Russians, the US and the UK — currently seem more inclined to step up their military intervention in Syria than to scale it back.

“和平进程”的最大障碍不在于它不道德，而在于它不切实际。Isis完全拒绝国际体制，并幻想着要在全世界建立统一的哈里发国，因而不大可能愿意坐下来谈判。出于这个原因，其他大国——包括俄罗斯、美国和英国——目前似乎更倾向于加大、而非减少对叙利亚的军事干预。

Yet a temporary intensification of the war against Isis is not incompatible with an international effort to reach a peace settlement. If all parties, other than the jihadis, sign up to a peace process it would then be easier either to split, isolate or defeat Isis.

然而，暂时加强对Isis的军事行动与国际社会促成和平解决方案的努力并不冲突。如果除了圣战分子以外，其他所有各方都同意加入和平进程，那么届时我们分化、孤立或打败Isis的难度会小一些。

Later this week, Vladimir Putin, the Russian president, is likely to propose a common international front against Isis in a major speech at the UN. Given the parlous state of US-Russia relations, Mr Putin’s proposal is likely to be treated with great suspicion in the west. Yet, in some ways, the Russians and the US are already in a tacit alliance. The US Air Force has been bombing Isis for more than a year. And the Russians are not feigning their hostility to Islamist terror, which is clearly also a long-term threat to Russia itself.

俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔渠京(Vladimir Putin)在联合国大会上发表主旨演讲时建议成立一条打击Isis的国际统一阵线。考虑到美俄关系的脆弱状态，普京的提议很可能会遭到西方国家的严重怀疑。然而，在某些方面，俄罗斯和美国早已是心照不宣的同盟。美国空军对Isis进行轰炸已有一年多。而俄罗斯对伊斯兰恐怖主义的敌视也不是装出来的，后者显然也是俄罗斯自身的长期威胁。

The sticking point remains the role of Mr Assad. The Americans and Saudis have long insisted that he has to go. The Russians and Iranians insist that he has to stay. The answer must surely be to concentrate on the process, not the man. The main outside forces should work for a ceasefire between the Syrian regime and the moderate rebels followed by an interim government and UN-sponsored elections, which would decide the fate of the current regime.

症结仍在于阿萨德的角色。美国与沙特阿拉伯一直坚持阿萨德必须下台。而俄罗斯与伊朗则坚持他必须留下。解决方案当然必须是专注于和平进程，而非阿萨德这个人。主要外部力量应该设法促使叙利亚政权与温和的反对派达成停火协议，然后再成立临时政府并举行联合国支持下的大选，最后由大选决定当前政权的命运。

Establishing such a process is obviously fiendishly difficult. But there are some promising signs. The Americans have stopped insisting on the immediate removal of Mr Assad. And despite their military build-up in Syria, the Russians must surely understand the long-term risks of “boots on the ground” in Syria. They too need a diplomatic option.

建立这样一种进程显然极其困难。但也有一些乐观的迹象。美国已不再坚持阿萨德必须立即下台。尽管俄罗斯军队已介入到叙利亚的军事行动中，但在叙利亚驻兵的长期风险俄罗斯当然也心知肚明。他们也需要一个外交选项。

It would clearly be best if Mr Assad stepped aside early on, as part of a Syrian peace process. But diplomacy cannot be held hostage by the question of Mr Assad’s future. Too many people have already died in Syria to make the search for peace dependent on the fate of one man, however evil.

如果阿萨德能早点下台——作为叙利亚和平进程的一部分——那显然是最好的。但外交方案不能被阿萨德未来的去留问题所绑架。叙利亚已经死了太多的人，不能继续让一个人的命运决定我们是否寻求和平解决方案了——无论这个人有多罪大恶极。