TPP谈判美国难容有失

In the sparring between China and the US over leadership in Asia, Beijing recently landed a tidy, if Almost accidental, punch. Washington’s attempt to lead a boycott of the China-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank ended in farce after Britain broke ranks and other nations from Germany to South Korea fell over themselves to join.

在中美这场对亚洲领导权的争夺战中，北京最近打出了漂亮的一拳，尽管那一拳赢得近乎意外。华盛顿原本企图带头抵制中国牵头筹建的亚洲基础设施投资银行（Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank，简称亚投行），然而在英国打乱了队形、从德国到韩国的其他国家也争相加入之后，美国的企图最终沦为笑柄。

If round one was a defeat for America, round two hangs in the balance. Washington is trying to convince 11 Pacific nations to join a “next generation” trade agreement called the Trans-Pacific Partnership. Billed as the most important trade initiative since the collapse of the 2001 launch of the World Trade Organisation’s Doha round, it would bind two of the biggest economies — the US and Japan — into a bloc covering 40 per cent of global output. Supporters say it would also reaffirm US commitment to the region at a time when China’s economic pull is growing.

如果说美国在双方的第一轮较量中落败，第二轮双方则势均力敌。华盛顿正努力说服11个太平洋沿岸国家加入所谓《跨太平洋伙伴关系协定》（Trans-Pacific Partnership，简称TPP）的“新一代”贸易协定。TPP被宣扬为世贸组织(WTO)多哈回合谈判（启动于2001年）泡汤以来最重要的贸易协定，将把该地区两个最大经济体——美国和日本——纳入同一个占全球产出40%的贸易区。支持者表示，在中国的经济吸引力日益上升之际，TPP还能再次确认美国对该地区的承诺没有动摇。

The stakes are high. If the TPP disappoints — or worse still, if it is not concluded at all — it will be another embarrassing setback for US regional diplomacy. The omens are mixed at best.

TPP对美国事关重大。如果TPP表现令人失望甚至根本没有达成，那么将标志着美国地区外交遭遇又一个令人难堪的挫折。目前的种种兆头至多算是好坏掺半。

The TPP excludes China. That is quite an omission. It is also precisely the point. The region’s most important trading nation has not been invited to join on the grounds that its economy is too centrally planned and too rigged to be part of such a highfalutin arrangement. Yet in a peculiar display of diplomatic contortion, Vietnam — a country whose economy is as centrally planned and as rigged as the best of them — is somehow considered fit for entry.

TPP排除了中国。这是个挺大的遗漏，也正是有意为之。该地区最重要的贸易国未获邀加入，理由是其经济太多地由中央政府计划、受操纵太严重，因而不够格参加这么上档次的协定。然而，不知为什么，经济由中央政府计划和受操纵程度丝毫不亚于中国的越南却被认为适合加入，离奇地显示出美国在外交上的扭曲。

The exclusion of China serves twin objectives. Neither bears close scrutiny. The TPP is a “trade pivot” to Asia; the commercial equivalent of Washington’s commitment to remain militarily engaged in the region. Yet it is just as likely to annoy allies as reassure them.

排除中国能满足两个目的，但都经不起推敲。TPP是美国“重返亚洲”战略的贸易版本，是华盛顿承诺在亚洲保持军事威力的商业版本。然而，这个协定惹恼盟友与让他们放心的可能性一样大。

Almost all have expressed concern that some provisions intrude into their internal affairs. That is, indeed, the point of the TPP, which goes beyond tariff reduction to deal with “behind the border” issues thought to impede trade and investment. These include tendering processes, financial regulations, data protection rules and intellectual property laws. Opponents from Australia to Japan see it not as an act of US benevolence but rather as a charter for meddling in everything from pharmaceutical pricing to cigarette advertising.

几乎所有国家都对一些条款干涉他们的内政表达了担心。而这又确实是TPP的意义所在，它超越了降关税，想要拿被认为阻碍贸易和投资的“国内”事务开刀。这些事务包括招标过程、金融监管、数据保护规则以及知识产权法规。从澳大利亚到日本，反对这一点的国家都认为，此举并非体现了美国的善意，而是为它干涉从药品定价到香烟广告的一切事务开出了许可证。

The other reason for shutting out China is also questionable. The hope is that Beijing, slighted by its exclusion, may be goaded into reforming its economy so it can join at a later stage. Some in Beijing would indeed like to call Washington’s bluff by seeking TPP membership. At least theoretically, China is already moving in a direction that might be conducive to that aim by allowing a greater role for market forces.

另一个排除中国的理由也值得质疑。这个理由是，希望中国在感受到被排除的轻慢后，能够发奋改革经济，以便以后能够加入。北京方面有些人确实想要通过谋求加入TPP来戳穿华盛顿的假话。至少在理论上，中国允许市场发挥更大作用，已经在朝着可能有利于它加入TPP的方面前进。

Yet it is folly to imagine it will be induced to move more quickly to obtain membership of a club to which it has only the most grudging of invitations. More, Beijing is supporting alternative regional trade initiatives, including the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership. Pointedly, that is a club to which the US is not invited.

然而，对于一个最不欢迎中国的俱乐部，想象中国有动力加快脚步争取成为它的一员是愚蠢的。此外，北京还在支持其他区域性贸易协定，包括“区域全面经济伙伴关系协定”(Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership)。显然，这个协定是美国没有获邀的。

There is a further hitch. If the TPP is seen in much of Asia as designed for the benefit of US corporations, in the US itself it is regarded with equal suspicion. Most members of President Barack Obama’s Democratic party are wary of trade deals, which they blame for hollowing out manufacturing jobs and suppressing middle-class wages. Consumer groups say the TPP will expose Americans to all sorts of evils from dodgy Vietnamese seafood to slack financial regulation.

还有一个难题。亚洲大部分国家都认为，TPP是为了美国企业的利益而设计的，而美国本身对这个协定也有同样强烈的怀疑。巴拉克•奥巴马(Barack Obama)总统所属的民主党大部分人都对贸易协定怀有戒心，他们谴责贸易协定是导致制造业就业岗位流向海外、中产阶级工资停滞不前的原因。消费者团体表示，TPP会让美国人面临各种危险，从劣质越南海鲜、到不够严格的金融监管。

The TPP is nonetheless regarded as one of Mr Obama’s best shots at a foreign policy legacy. If so, he could have sold it better to his own party. He remains uncomfortably reliant on the Republican majority in Congress to grant him the fast-track authority he needs to push it over the line.

然而，TPP仍被认为可能成为奥巴马外交政策遗产中最棒的成就之一。如果真是这样的话，他本可以让所在的民主党更好地为自己买账。他仍然要尴尬地依赖国会中的共和党多数派给予他推进TPP所需要的“快车道”谈判授权。

While most Republicans support a deal in the name of free trade, some on the Tea Party end of the spectrum are opposed. Others may deny Mr Obama the authority he needs out of spite. Ian Bremmer, president of the Eurasia Group consultancy, says the vote on trade promotion authority will be “razor thin”, though he believes ultimately Mr Obama will prevail.

虽然大多数共和党人支持一项以自由贸易为名义的协议，但一些极端的茶党人士对此表示反对。还有人可能出于解恨的目的拒绝给予奥巴马授权。咨询公司欧亚集团(Eurasia Group)总裁伊恩•布雷默(Ian Bremmer)说，尽管他相信奥巴马在关于“贸易促进授权”(trade promotion authority)的表决中最终会取胜，但也只是“险胜”。

Even if TPP is finally concluded, the chances are it will be too watered down to satisfy trade purists and too intrusive to please Washington’s Pacific partners. For Beijing, fresh from its triumph over the infrastructure bank, the whole spectacle must be quite amusing.

即使TPP最终缔结完成，很大的可能性是，它将被削弱至无法满足贸易纯粹主义者，同时又太具有侵入性而无法使美国的太平洋合作伙伴们高兴。在刚刚取得亚投行胜利的中国看来，整个场面一定相当有趣。