中国制造业疲软引发全球股市大跌

Keep the seatbelts on.

请系好安全带。

Stock markets around the world tumbled again on Tuesday, dashing hopes that financial markets would calm down after two weeks of turbulence.

本周二，全球股市再次大跌，击破了金融市场将在两周的震荡后走稳的希望。

Investors appear to be growing more nervous about the strength of the global economy. China released a weak report on manufacturing on Tuesday, and an influential international policy maker sounded a downbeat note on the outlook for Asian economies.

投资者似乎越来越担心全球经济后继乏力。中国本周二公布的数据显示其制造业走势疲软，而一位举足轻重的国际政策制定者对亚洲经济的前景表示了悲观。

After steep declines in the stock markets of Asia and Europe, stocks in the United States also plummeted. The Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index slid 58.33 points, or 2.96 percent. The benchmark is now 10.2 percent below its nominal high, putting it back in a correction — the Wall Street term for a decline of more than 10 percent from a peak level. The S.&P. 500 index is still 2.48 percent above the low it closed at last week.

继亚洲和欧洲股市大跌之后，美国股市也跳水。标准普尔500指数跌58.33点，跌幅2.96%。现在该指数比其名义高位低10.2%，回到调整区间——这是华尔街术语，指比峰值水平低逾10%。但标准普尔500指数仍站在比上周收盘时高出2.48%的位置。

But the underlying ugliness of the action — only three stocks in the S.&P. 500 rose on Tuesday — suggested that the market could have further to drop.

但下跌的惨状——标准普尔500种股票中仅有3只个股上涨——表明股市可能有进一步下挫。

And some analysts said it might be a while before the market recovers.

一些分析人士说，股市一时半会可能不会回涨。

“You rarely get a V-shaped bottom,” said John De Clue, an investment officer for U.S. Bank. “You usually bounce around for a while.”

“V形底很罕见，”美国银行(U.S. Bank)投资主管约翰·德克鲁(John De Clue)说。“反弹通常需要一段时间。”

The Dow Jones industrial average, a popular market barometer, lost 469.68 points, or 2.84 percent, on Tuesday, to close at 16,058.35. The index is more than 12 percent below its nominal high, reached in May. The technology-heavy Nasdaq composite index dropped 2.94 percent on the day, and is down 11 percent from its recent high.

本周二收盘时，常用指标道琼斯工业平均指数报收16058.35点，跌469.68点，跌幅2.84%。与在今年5月达成的名义高位相比，该指数的跌幅超过了12%。以科技股为主的纳斯达克综合指数当天下挫2.94%，从近期高位下跌了11%。

Investors are now scouring the horizon for events that drive the markets up or down.

投资者目前正在密切关注股市的利好或利空消息。

Looming at the end of this week is the release of the United States jobs numbers. If the government figures on Friday show that employment growth has remained strong, investors may be encouraged that developments overseas will not do too much harm to the American economy. On the other hand, a robust jobs number may also lead investors to conclude that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates this month, rather than wait longer.

美国就业数据将于周末发布。如果政府本周五的数据显示就业增长依然强劲，投资者可能会受到鼓励，认为海外发生的事情不会对美国经济造成太大损害。另一方面，稳健的就业人数也可能会让投资者觉得，美联储将在本月加息，而不是等待更长的时间。

“The jobs numbers on Friday will be really important,” said Edward J. Perkin, chief equity investment officer at Eaton Vance Management. “It will determine Fed policy one way or another.” If the Fed decides to raise rates this month, it will most likely announce the move after monetary policy meetings scheduled for Sept. 16 and 17.

“周五公布的就业数据真的非常重要，”伊顿万斯管理公司(Eaton Vance Management)首席股本投资官爱德华·J·佩尔金(Edward J. Perkin)说。“这会以某种方式决定美联储的政策。”如果美联储决定本月提高利率，他们可能会在9月16号、17号举行完货币政策会议之后宣布消息。

The prospect of a September rise in interest rates has worried many economists and investors. In particular, they assert that the low level of inflation in the United States is a sign that the economy is still quite vulnerable to a slowdown.

9月利率可能会升高，这让很多经济学家及投资者感到担忧。特别是因为，他们断定美国的低通胀说明经济仍旧相当容易出现减速。

In a speech in New York on Tuesday, Eric S. Rosengren, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, highlighted that inflation numbers were well below the Fed’s target of 2 percent. Mr. Rosengren, who is an alternate member of the Fed’s committee on interest rates, also suggested that a weaker global economy and turmoil in the markets might make reaching that level harder.

波士顿联邦储备银行(Federal Reserve Bank of Boston)行长埃里克·S·罗森格伦(Eric S. Rosengren)周二在纽约讲话时强调，通胀数据远低于美联储2%的目标。罗森格伦是美联储利率委员会的候补委员，他还表示，全球经济的疲软和市场的动荡可能使得这个目标更难以完成。

“Given the low wage and price inflation data seen to date, and increased uncertainty about global growth, it will be particularly important for monetary-policy makers to closely monitor and depend on incoming data,” he said.

他说，“鉴于到目前为止看到的低工资、物价膨胀数据，以及对全球增长的不确定性的增加，对货币政策制定者来说，尤其重要的是密切关注和依赖接下来得到的数据。”

Even if the Fed decides not to increase rates this month, further problems in China and elsewhere could make investors reluctant to jump back into the stock market.

即便美联储决定不在本月提高利率，中国及其他地方出现的更多问题可能会致使投资者不愿回归股市。

On Tuesday, a report from Beijing showed that Chinese manufacturing activity had slipped in August to a three-year low, with both current production and new orders falling. That added to fears that the world’s second-largest economy, after that of the United States, may be slowing more than analysts had believed.

周二，北京发布的一份报告显示，中国8月份的制造业活动跌至三年来最低水平，当前生产和新订单都不断减少。这加剧了相关担忧，即仅次于美国的世界第二大经济体经济发展放缓的程度，高于分析人士的预测。

Christine Lagarde, the managing director of the International Monetary Fund, warned on Tuesday that the world economy would most likely expand at only a moderate pace and would probably be weaker than the I.M.F. forecast two months ago.

国际货币基金组织(International Monetary Fund)总裁克里斯蒂娜·拉加德(Christine Lagarde)周二警告称，世界经济可能只会以适度的速度扩张，发展形势可能不及该组织两个月前做出的预测。

“Asia as a region is still expected to lead global growth,” she said in a speech in Jakarta, Indonesia. “But even here, the pace is turning out slower than expected — with the risk that it may slow even further given the recent spike in global risk aversion and financial market volatility.”

“亚洲作为一个区域，仍将引领全球经济增长，”她在印度尼西亚雅加达发表讲话时说。“但即便在亚洲，增长速度也变得不及预期，鉴于最近全球风险规避的剧增，以及金融市场的波动，经济增长可能会进一步放缓。”

The sell-offs in global markets started soon after China unexpectedly devalued its currency, the renminbi, on Aug. 11. Analysts at the time said the move could bolster Chinese exports by making them cheaper in other currencies. It was also expected to reduce Chinese imports, since foreign goods and services would cost more in renminbi.

在中国于8月11日出人意料地降低人民币价值不久后，全球股市开始大跌。分析人士当时表示，此举会促使以其他货币定价的中国商品的价格下滑，促进中国的出口产业。这也会减少中国的进口量，因为外国商品和服务会花费更多人民币。

Both outcomes, however, could affect countries with economies that rely heavily on exports. As result, such countries may decide to further devalue their currencies to regain competitiveness with China. The high stakes of such rivalries were made clear on Tuesday when South Korea reported export figures for August that were well below expectations.

然而，这两种后果可能会影响那些严重依赖出口的国家。因此，此类国家可能决定进一步促使货币贬值，以恢复竞争力，与中国展开竞争。韩国在周二报告称8月份的出口数据远低于预期，说明了此类竞争的高风险性。

In China, the Shanghai composite index fell 1.23 percent on Tuesday, leaving it almost 40 percent below its recent high.

在中国，上证综合指数本周二跌1.23%，与近期高点相比，跌幅近40%。

In contrast with past periods of turbulence, this one has not so far spurred a fierce rally in the 10-year Treasury note, a safe-haven investment. Its yield fell slightly to 2.16 percent on Tuesday from 2.21 percent on Monday. Its price went up 16/32, to 98 19/32.

与之前的震荡行情相反，本次震荡尚未导致避险投资10年期国债的激烈反弹。它的收益率从本周一的2.21%小幅下滑至本周二的2.16%。其价格涨16/32，至98 19/32。

Adding to the nervousness on Tuesday, the price of oil fell after a strong rally in recent days. The benchmark crude contract in New York declined $3.79, or 7.7 percent, to $45.41. Over time, a lower price might signal less demand for oil as economies slow.

石油价格在近日的一波强劲反弹之后，也在周二出现下跌，加剧了当日的市场紧张情绪。纽约基准原油期货价格下跌3.79美元，至45.41美元，跌幅7.7%。从较长的期间来看，石油价格下滑可能意味着经济体的需求减缓。

The Vix index, a measure of volatility in the S.&P. 500 that is often called Wall Street’s fear gauge, jumped 10 percent, but it is still well below last week’s high.

VIX指数衡量的是标准普尔500指数的波动性，通常被称为华尔街的恐惧指标，周二该指数跃升10%，但仍远低于上周的高点。

In another sign that investors remain pessimistic, European shares declined despite an official report on Tuesday showing that the jobless rate in the eurozone had slipped by 0.2 of a percentage point in July, to 10.9 percent — the first time it had sunk below 11 percent since early 2012. While that still leaves about 17.5 million people classified as unemployed, it suggests a modest economic recovery in the bloc.

另一个表明投资者依然悲观的迹象是，尽管周二的数据显示，欧元区7月份的失业率下降0.2个百分点，至10.9%——这是自2012年初以来，它第一次降到11%以下——但欧股仍然出现下跌。虽然欧洲仍有约1750万人被归为失业者，但该指标表示经济出现了小幅复苏。

The major European indexes all closed the day 2 to 3 percent lower. In London, the FTSE 100 fell 3 percent, while the CAC 40 in Paris ended down 2.4 percent.

欧洲主要股指当天全线下跌2-3%。伦敦的FTSE 100指数收跌3%，而巴黎CAC 40指数下跌了2.4%。