房地产或迎短暂调整期 商品房销售有望创新高

China's housing sales are expected to reach a record high in 2016, though the growth of real estate investment may slow, said a report by a research group of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.

中国社会科学院一个研究小组近日发布的报告称，尽管房地产投资增幅或将趋缓，2016年我国商品房销售有望创历史新高。

After a short-term slump, China's real estate market has been rising since mid-2015, heating up rapidly in the first quarter this year.

在短期暴跌之后，2015年年中以来，我国房地产市场步入上升周期，今年一季度迅速升温。

According to the report, housing inventory in the first half of 2016 fell by 50 million square meters from the same period in 2015, but the growth in sales slowed slightly in May.

根据报告，2016年上半年商品房库存同比降低0.5亿平方米，但今年5月，商品房销售增幅出现了微幅收窄。

The report sees China's real estate market having a short adjustment period from the second half of 2016 to the first half of 2017.

报告预计，今年下半年到明年上半年，我国房地产市场将迎来一个短期调整期。

During this period, price increases will slow if there's no drastic change in the macroeconomic situation and in major policies, the report said.

报告称，在此期间，如果宏观经济形势和大的政方针不出现重大变化，房价增幅将回落。

"The cycle for China's real estate market is about two to three years, within which the rising period only lasts about one year," said Ni Pengfei, a researcher at the National Academy of Economic Strategy at CASS and the main author of the report. "By the middle of 2016 the one-year period of increasing prices will end."

该报告的主要作者、在中国社会科学院财经战略研究院的研究员倪鹏飞表示：“中国房地产市场的周期大约是两到三年，在这个周期内，上升期只持续一年左右。到2016年年中，一年期的价格增长将结束。”

Zhang Ming, a researcher at the Institute of World Economics and Politics, said the upcoming year will be a transition from price increases to a decline in housing prices.

世界经济与政治研究所的研究员张明表示，即将到来的一年将是房价从上涨到下降过渡的一年。

The report suggested that policymakers should aim to avoid drastic adjustments and maintain long-term, sustainable and stable development of the real estate market.

此外，该报告建议，政策制定者应旨在避免大幅调整，并保持房地产市场长期持续稳定的发展。