总统家族 "布什三世"低调登场

This week Jeb Bush, the former governor of Florida (and second son of George Bush), has been discreetly pressing the flesh in London. Unsurprisingly, interest in him has been sky high. For with the Republicans feeling exuberant after the recent midterm vote, there is fevered speculation about whether the genial Bush will become a 2016 Republican presidential candidate – and thus potentially pave the way for a bizarrely dynastic Bush v Clinton fight.

本周，美国佛罗里达州前州长杰布•布什（Jeb Bush，老布什(George H.W. Bush)的次子）低调地在伦敦与人们握手。不出所料，外界对他极感兴趣。最近中期选举结果出炉后，共和党人欢欣鼓舞，各方狂热地猜测这位待人亲切的布什会不会成为2016年大选的共和党总统候选人，潜在开启一场带有吊诡的王朝意味的选战，即他与希拉里•克林顿(Hillary Clinton)角逐总统职位。

Indeed, curiosity is so intense that when Pi Capital, the financial networking group, arranged a private breakfast with Bush in a Mayfair hotel, the room was packed with business leaders and financiers, all eager to hear his plans, his views on Hillary Clinton and much else.

的确，人们对布什是如此好奇，以至于当金融集团Pi Capital在伦敦梅菲尔(Mayfair)地区的一家酒店为他安排一场私人早餐会时，房间里挤满了商界领袖和金融家，他们都迫切地想听一听布什的计划，以及他对希拉里和其他许多事情的看法。

But having attended the breakfast meeting myself, I came away with two clear conclusions. The first is that this latest Bush is still playing it coy about whether he will actually run. His famous father and brother – the 41st and 43rd presidents respectively – say they would back his bid and Bush seems to be seriously considering it. But he remains carefully non-committal right now – much like Clinton herself in fact (she talks about her new grandchild if anyone asks if she will run for the Democratic nomination).

然而，在亲自参加了这个早餐会之后，我得出了两个明确的结论。首先，关于他是否会真的竞选，这位最新登场的布什还在“打太极”。他著名的父亲和哥哥（分别是第41任和第43任美国总统）都表示他们将支持他竞选，而他似乎也在认真考虑。但他谨慎地避免现在就明确表态，这一点和希拉里差不多（每当有人问她是否会竞争民主党候选人提名时，她会谈论自己刚出世的外孙女）。

But, second, this third Bush is also a man who tries hard to sound not just genial but sensible too. Indeed, if you ignore the peculiar dynastic legacy and highly privileged life, he looks almost normal, more akin to an avuncular family doctor than firebrand. He is a man known for espousing the merits of free markets and private business – but is not calling for the abolition of the Federal Reserve or a return to the gold standard. Bush favours tighter border controls and balanced budgets but he also wants to encourage economic immigration, free trade and infrastructure projects. He does not support an isolationist US but nor does he want to invade every country with an unpleasant regime.

但是，我的第二个结论是，这位布什三号努力让自己听上去不仅是个亲切的人，还是个明智的人。的确，如果你忽略吊诡的王朝遗风和他极其优越的生活，他看上去几乎像个普通人，更像是一位具有长辈风范的家庭医生，而不是一个挑动争端的人。他以拥护自由市场和私营企业的优越性著称，但不会呼吁废除美联储(Fed)或者回到金本位制。他赞同更严格的边境管控和预算平衡，但他也同样希望鼓励经济移民、自由贸易和基础设施项目。他不支持一个奉行孤立主义的美国，但也不想入侵每一个由令人不快的政权掌权的国家。

He sounds, in other words, pragmatic, if not centrist – and notably different from many of the Republican figures who have grabbed attention in recent years, be that Sarah Palin (the 2008 vice-presidential candidate), Ted Cruz (the Tea Party firebrand who fancies himself as a 2016 presidential candidate) or Rand Paul (the libertarian Republican leader who is another potential runner).

换句话说，他听起来是务实的（如果说还算不上是中间立场的话），而且和近年来吸引人们注意力的许多共和党头面人物明显不同，比如莎拉•佩林（Sarah Palin，2008年副总统候选人）、特德•克鲁斯（Ted Cruz，茶党(Tea Party)的挑动争端者，幻想当上2016年总统候选人）或者兰德•保罗（Rand Paul，自由主义派共和党人的领袖，另一位可能参选的人）。

So does this mean that a third Bush presidential campaign is doomed? The answer partly depends not simply on that tricky matter of dynasty but something else: can “sensible” be sold to US voters today? Judging from the past decade, the answer might seem to be “no”. As the rise of the Tea Party has shown, the big winners in American politics, particularly on the right, have tended to embrace celebrity politics, populism and protest.

那么这是否意味着这位布什竞选总统注定会失败呢？答案不仅仅取决于棘手的王朝问题，还有其它因素：如今的美国选民是否还买“明智”的帐？从过去10年的情况看，答案似乎是否定的。正如茶党的崛起所显示出的那样，美国政治的大赢家（尤其是在右翼），倾向于采用名人政治、民粹主义和抗议。

That partly reflects the economic cycle – and, most notably, the pain caused by the great financial crisis and recession. But it may also reflect a longer-term structural shift. These days, more and more voters are getting their information – about politics and everything else – via social media platforms such as Twitter. These platforms are an effective way to create a loud political noise but not a good place to create thoughtful debate. Attention spans are so short that everyone needs to shout to be heard. Extremism tends to dominate.

这部分反映了经济周期，尤其是严重金融危机和经济衰退造成的痛苦。但或许也反映了更长期的结构性转变。如今，越来越多的选民通过Twitter等社交媒体平台来获取信息——无论是关于政治还是其他事情。这些平台能够有效地制造巨大的政治舆论，但不是开展有思想深度的辩论的理想平台。人们的注意力持续时间如此之短，以至于每个人都得大声叫嚷才能让别人听到自己的声音。极端言论往往主宰了这些平台。

Perhaps this is just a short-term phenomenon. There are some factors in the current American political mood that might – just possibly – make it easier to sell a sensible candidate to voters, or so some of the old-school Republicans and business leaders who are trying to remake the party desperately hope. For one thing, the economic outlook seems to be improving. For another, the mood in Congress might be getting a little more pragmatic. With both the Senate and House of Representatives now controlled by the Republicans, it is possible that Congress will pass more legislation in the next couple of years. If so, that might show voters that pragmatic co-operation pays.

也许这只是一个短期现象。当前美国政治氛围中的某些因素可能——仅仅是可能——让选民们更容易接受一个明智的候选人，至少一些老派共和党人和商界领袖殷切希望如此，他们正试图重新打造该党。一方面，经济前景似乎在改善。另一方面，美国国会的氛围也可能变得更务实了一些。随着共和党将参众两院都掌握在手中，未来两年国会可能会通过更多法律。若果真如此，那也许能让选民看到，务实合作是能够带来成果的。

Then there is the nature of emotional cycles. Back in 2008, US voters fell violently in love with the idea of “hope and change”, as presented by a man blessed with soaring rhetoric and celebrity. Today many have fallen equally violently out of love with Barack Obama as those unrealistic dreams have been dashed. That might leave them grasping at another anti-establishment celebrity dream – but it might also leave them shunning glitz. Voting for Bush, in other words, could yet be presented as the political equivalent of dating a lawyer after being burned by an unreliable rock star. Or, more accurately, like dating the sensible son of your high-school teacher, whose family you already know well.

还有就是情绪周期的本质。回想2008年，美国选民狂热地迷上了某位慷慨激昂、人气高涨的人提出的理念——“希望和改变”。如今，随着那些不切实际的梦想被击碎，很多人开始同样激烈地厌弃巴拉克•奥巴马(Barack Obama)。这也许会让他们拥戴另一位反体制的名人——但也可能让他们唾弃浮夸。换句话说，投票给布什在政治上可能等同于在被一个不靠谱的摇滚明星伤害后，转而和一个律师约会。或者，更准确地来说，就像和你高中老师家的明智的儿子约会一样，你已经非常了解他的家庭了。

Of course, all this is mere speculation. Thus far the only thing that is tangibly clear is that this Bush commands moderate respect: according to a recent ABC News/Washington Post poll, some 26 per cent of voters think he would make a good president, which is better than many rival potential candidates, if not great. But in the months ahead, Americans and non-Americans alike should closely watch this third Bush. Not just because of what it might reveal about Republican policies or the dynastic-cum-tribal patterns of US politics but also for what it shows about how social media is changing politics – or not. Can sensible, in other words, ever “trend”?

当然，这些都只是猜测而已。到目前为止，唯一确凿的是，这位布什赢得了一定程度的尊敬：最近美国广播公司新闻部(ABC News)和《华盛顿邮报》(Washington Post)进行的民意调查显示，约有26%的选民认为布什会是一位好总统，就算这个比例不算太高，至少也比很多潜在的竞选对手强。在接下来的数月里，美国人和美国以外的人都应该密切关注这位布什三号——不仅仅是为了从中观察共和党的政策，或者领略美国政治的“王朝和部落”色彩，也是为了观察社交媒体如何改变政治进程，或者没能改变政治进程。换句话说，明智能引领潮流吗？