一直都是危险角色 核反应堆退役成本或被低估

The bill for closing down and cleaning up the world’s ageing nuclear reactors will exceed $100bn, the leading energy watchdog will say today, warning that governments risk underestimating the cost.

全球能源监督机构国际能源署(IEA)今日表示，全球用于关闭和清理日益老化的核反应堆的成本将超过1000亿美元。它警告说，各国政府可能会低估这一成本。

With almost 200 reactors due to be shut down by 2040, the International Energy Agency says in its annual report there are “considerable uncertainties” about decommissioning costs, reflecting governments’ limited experience in safely dismantling nuclear plants. In the past 40 years, only 10 reactors have been closed down.

国际能源署在其年度报告中表示，按照计划，2040年前全球将关闭近200座反应堆，由于各国政府在安全拆除核电站方面的经验有限，这些反应堆的退役成本有“很大不确定性”。过去40年里，全球只关闭了10座反应堆。

“This is an urgent area that needs consideration,” Fatih Birol, the IEA’s chief economist, told the Financial Times. He called on regulators and utilities to ensure enough funds were set aside to cover future expenses.

国际能源署首席经济学家法提赫•比罗尔(Fatih Birol)告诉英国《金融时报》：“这是个需要马上给予关注的领域。”他呼吁监管机构及公用事业企业确保拨出足够资金，以备未来的开销。

The estimates for clean-up costs are contained in the IEA’s closely watched World Energy Outlook, which this year includes a comprehensive analysis of the global nuclear industry.

国际能源署发布的备受关注的《世界能源展望》(World Energy Outlook)中，包含了关于清理成本的预估数字。今年，该报告囊括了一项对全球核电业的全面分析。

It will inevitably raise questions about the economics of nuclear power at a time when countries such as China and the UK are pressing ahead with ambitious reactor-building programmes.

在中国和英国等国大力推进雄心勃勃的反应堆建设计划之际，该报告将不可避免地引发对核电经济成本的质疑。

Nuclear energy has been seen by many nations as an effective way of cutting their carbon dioxide emissions, as well as reducing their dependence on expensive energy imports.

许多国家都将核能视为减少二氧化碳排放量、降低对高成本能源进口依赖程度的有效手段。

But governments pursuing nuclear expansions have long been criticised for underplaying the lifetime costs of operating reactors, which include shutting them down and cleaning up their sites.

但长期以来，一直有人批评各国政府在推进核电发展的过程中低估了反应堆整个生命周期的运营成本，其中包括关闭反应堆和清理现场的成本。

Critics have also pointed to the issue of safety, which was dramatically underscored by the Fukushima disaster in 2011, and the still unresolved question of how to dispose of radioactive nuclear waste. The IEA said the amount of spent nuclear fuel would double to more than 700,000 tonnes by 2040. But even now, Mr Birol noted, “some 60 years after the first nuclear power plant started operation, no country has yet opened a permanent disposal facility for commercial high-level waste”.

批评人士还将矛头指向了安全问题以及仍未得到解决的放射性核废料的处置问题。2011年的福岛(Fukushima)核灾难，就凸现出核电的安全问题。国际能源署表示，到2040年，全球核废料将增加一倍，达到逾70万吨。但比罗尔指出，即使是现在，“在首座核电站开始运营大约60年后的今天，仍然没有哪个国家为商用高放射性核废料设立永久性处置设施”。

Paul Dorfman, of the Energy Institute at University College London, an outspoken critic of nuclear power, noted that the IEA’s $100bn figure is only for decommissioning and does not include the costs of permanent waste disposal.

伦敦大学学院(University College London)能源研究所(Energy Institute)的保罗•多尔夫曼(Paul Dorfman)是一位直言不讳的核电批评人士。他指出，国际能源署给出的1000亿美元的数字，只包括退役核电站的成本，未包括永久性处置核废料的成本。

“The UK’s own decommissioning and waste disposal costs are £85bn alone, so that gives you an idea of the astronomical costs associated with nuclear,” he said.

他说：“仅英国一国退役核电站和处置核废料的成本就达到850亿英镑，可想而知，与核电有关的成本是个天文数字。”

But Andrew Sherry, director of the Dalton Nuclear Institute at Manchester University, said the surge in decommissioning reactors will “spur” the sector to find ways to generate less radioactive waste.

不过，曼彻斯特大学(Manchester University)道尔顿核研究所(Dalton Nuclear Institute)主任安德鲁•谢里(Andrew Sherry)表示，退役反应堆数量的激增会“鞭策”该行业找到办法，来生成放射性较低的核废料。

Addressing broader concerns around global energy security, Mr Birol stressed that despite a well-supplied oil market, production may fall short of expectations in 2020 and beyond: “Short-term conditions should not blind us to the problems that may be around the corner [as the world increasingly relies on only a handful of producers]”.

在提到人们对全球能源安全的更广泛关注时，比罗尔强调，尽管石油市场供应充足，但2020年及以后，石油产量可能达不到人们的预期：“（在全球日益依赖少数产油国之际，）我们不应被短期状况蒙蔽双眼、看不到即将到来的问题。”

US shale oil production will begin levelling off at the start of the next decade, developing Brazil’s deepwater fields will be a complex and capital intensive process and the lack of investment amid security risks in regions such as Iraq, will all contribute to greater stress on the oil market, he said.

他说，美国页岩油产量将在下个十年之初开始企稳，巴西深水油田的开发将是一个复杂的过程，需要大量资本投入，伊拉克等地区则因安全风险而缺乏投资，所有这些因素都将加大石油市场承受的压力。