印度人口20年超过中国

As the world hits the 7 billion population mark, much attention is focused on India, which will surpass China to become the world’s most populous country in less than two decades.

世界人口已经攀升到70亿的阶层，许多人把注意焦点集中于印度。印度的人口将于20年内超越中国，成为全世界人口最多的国家。

The population growth will mean a nation full of working-age youth, which economists say could allow the already booming economy to maintain momentum. But educating this next generation, keeping it healthy and employed also could be a steep challenge.

人口的增长，意味着这个国家将充满着年轻职工的族群。经济学家说，这个现象，将使它蓬勃发展中的经济，继续停留在优势的状况中。但是，对下一代的教育，以及健康的维护和工作的机会，也将成为印度一项严峻的挑战。

Thirty-year-old Ravinder Pande works as a chauffeur for a businessman in New Delhi earning $200 a month. He has migrated to the Indian capital from neighboring Uttar Pradesh state, which the United Nations believes will be home to the world’s 7 billionth baby, born on October 31st.

今年30岁的拉文德尔·潘德的工作，是新德里一名商人的司机。他月入200美元。潘德是从临近新德里的北方邦迁来新德里的。联合国当局认为，世界上第70亿名新生人口的婴儿，会是于今年10月31日，诞生在北方邦潘德老家附近的村落里。

Pande said he made virtually no money working on the small farm he owned and could not find any other work close to his village.

潘德说，他在老家自己的一块狭小农田里工作，根本赚不到钱。而且在他老家附近一带，也找不到其它工作。

Need for skilled manpower

With nearly 200 million people, Uttar Pradesh is one of India’s most crowded and impoverished states, with few industries.

印度北方邦人口将近2亿，是印度人口最拥挤，也是最贫困的几个邦中之一。

Fortunately for Pande, an economy racing ahead at about eight percent is creating new jobs in emerging hubs like Delhi, Mumbai and Bangalore.

几乎没有什么工业。潘德算是幸运的。印度8%的经济增长率，为德里，孟买和班加罗尔等新兴城市创造了新的工作机会。

Chandrajit Banerjee heads the Confederation of Indian Industry.

印度工业联盟主席班纳吉说：

“There will be a demand for skilled manpower in every level, starting from a white collar right down to whatever you need, be it a carpenter to an auto mechanic to a driver… you have a whole range of requirements that are coming up and shall come up over a period of time,” said Banerjee.

“我们将有技术人力方面的需求，上自白领阶级，下至你需要的任何技术人工，包括木匠，汽车技术工，到司机。这整个需求的范围，经过一段时期后，将逐渐呈现出来。”

These jobs are critically needed in a country expected to hit the one-and-half-billion mark around 2025. It will be one of the world’s youngest countries. By the end of the decade the average age of an Indian will be 29. This “youth bulge” will last until 2050.

对于一个人口预计将于2025年增加至15亿的国家来说，这些工作都是非常急迫的。到这个10年结束之际，印度将是世界最年轻的国家之一，印度人口的平均年龄将是29岁。这项年轻人兴起的现象，将持续到2050年。

Services versus manufacturing

Economists say this is a chance for India to reap what is called a “demographic dividend” - an opportunity to harness the skills and talents of young people in a growing economy at a time when most countries have aging populations.

经济学家说，这正是当大部分国家面临人口老化问题之际，印度坐收“人口利益”的时机。印度可以利用这个时机，在经济成长中培养富有技术与人才的年轻人。

However there are huge concerns. Economists say current rates of growth, although high, may not create enough jobs. The country will add a staggering 10 million people to the workforce every year, in the next two decades.

但是，印度也面临着一个严重的问题。经济学家说，目前印度的经济增长率固然很高，却未必能创造出足够的工作，以应付未来20年中，每年增长1000万劳动人口的需要。

Well known Indian author and columnist Gurcharan Das said the farming sector, where two thirds of the country works, is in a state of decline and earnings are meager.

印度著名专栏作家古查兰·达斯说，占印度劳动人口三分之二的农业人口，目前正处人数下降，收入微薄的状态。The services sector, led by information technology, is fueling India’s boom, but not adding jobs on the scale that is needed.

而服务业方面，由于资讯科技的引导，成为印度经济兴起的助力。但是没能够根据发展规模的需要，增加必需的就业人数。

“What is concerning is that our economy is fired by services, not manufacturing. At lEast it is not the low-tech labor intensive manufacturing, which creates lots and lots of jobs, for example as China is doing or other counties in Eastern and South East Asia have done. Our real challenge is to creating a manufacturing and industrial revolution. We need to create far more jobs and you cannot expect services alone to do that,” said Das.

达斯说：“现在令人担心的问题是，我们的经济靠服务业成长，而不是制造业。至少现今的制造业，还不属于低科技的劳力密集的制造业。而那种制造业创造了很多很多的工作，就像中国和其它东南亚国家一样。我们真正的挑战，是开启制造业和工业革命。我们必需创造更多的工作。你不能指望单靠服务业来创造出这么多的机会。”

Other key challenges lie ahead. The public education system is not only failing to keep pace with surging demand, but is often of poor quality. This has led to fears that much of this young workforce will not gain the skills needed to power the economy.

印度眼前还有其它挑战。公共教育系统非但不足以跟上发展的步调，品质也很低落。这个问题使人担心这些年轻的劳动族群，将无法获得推进经济必需的技术。

For example, chauffeur Pande said he wants his two children to acquire skills that will help them do better jobs than driving. But he has left them behind in the village because he cannot afford housing for his family in the city.

例如，作为司机的潘德说，他希望他的两个孩子能学到技术，让他们找到比司机更好的工作。但是他目前只有把他们留在乡下，因为他供不起一家人都住在城里。

Pande is not optimistic about how they will fare in the village. He said teachers often do not take classes in the village school. He is unsure if they will achieve success in their studies or get opportunity to tap their talents.

潘德对他的家人在乡间的境遇，不敢抱乐观的期望。他说：教师通常不愿到乡下的学校里教书。他不敢指望他的孩子经由那样的学习，能有收获。或者能发挥出他们的天赋。

Cultivating vocational skills

The Confederation of Indian Industry, with the government, is expanding programs to give vocational skills to young people. But the Confederation’s head, Banerjee, said the need is huge.

印度工业联盟正和政府合作发展一项对年轻人提供职业训练的计划。但是联盟负责人班纳吉说，这方面的需求太大了。

“If you are unable to train with targets of like 500 million people, which the prime minister talked about, if you are not able to achieve that, all of this would be unemployed youth because they are unemployable in terms of today’s standards. And that can become a disaster and it could even have a huge negative social impact… so we have no choice but to focus on skilling,” said Banerjee.

班纳吉说：“如果你无法根据如总理所谈到的，以五亿人为目标提供训练，如果你不能完成那个目标，以今天标准来说，所有这些年轻人都将属于失业的一群，因为他们没有就业能力。这可能成为一大灾难。甚至对社会造成巨大的负面影响。所以，我们别无选择，只有集中朝向技能训练方向进行。”

A 2008 report by the Boston Consulting Group has warned that failure to make India’s young people productive will mean that the country will have an army of young people left behind.

波士顿咨询公司于2008在一项报告中警告说，如果不能使印度的年轻人具有生产力，将意味着这个国家的青年人力，被抛弃在落后中。

The other big concern is health care. In Pande’s home state, Uttar Pradesh, infant mortality and malnutrition rates are high. It is not the only region that faces this problem. Nearly half of India’s children under five are malnourished. The school dropout rate also is high.

另外一项使人关切的问题是医疗保健。在潘德的故乡北方邦，婴儿夭折和营养不良的比率很高。北方邦并不是印度仅有的面临这个问题的地区。印度几乎有一半的地区，存在着5岁以下儿童营养不良的状况。学童辍学率也很高。

Sarah Crowe, spokesperson for the United Nations Children's Fund in New Delhi warns that these twin problems “could keep India back.”

联合国儿童基金驻新德里的发言人沙拉·克罗警告说，这种双重的问题，将使印度持续落后。

“That child is unable to really grow to its ability and will remain in a state of stunting, and not be able to learn when it goes to school, and indeed later earn and really pay back into the economy, and help the country and region move forward," said Crowe. "Out of 200 million children who start school, only 10 percent complete grade 12, so that again means that potential is not being fully met.”

克罗说：“这些孩子不能真正的发展潜力，停留在发育不全的状况下。他们无法在学校中学习，来日以也无法赚钱回馈于经济发展，也不能协助国家和地区进步。在印度2亿学龄儿童中，只有10%完成12年级的学业。这又说明，根本没有充分提供培养这个国家潜能的需求。”

Policymakers admit the clock is ticking away. Others warn that India needs to step up investments in health care and education to ensure that its demographic dividend does not turn into what some call a demographic liability.

印度政府的决策官员承认，时间正在分秒地流失。还有人警告说，印度必需在医疗保健和教育上投资，以确保人口上的优势，而不致变成人口上的负担。