巴黎气候协议面临特朗普威胁

Donald Trump is sowing doubt over the Paris climate change pact as his hostility towards the deal and the growing swagger of his campaign focus attention on how he could undermine it as president.

唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)正对巴黎气候变化协议播下怀疑的种子，他对该协议的敌意以及他在总统竞选中日益的招摇，让外界关注于他一旦当选将会如何破坏该协议。

The Republican candidate last week vowed to “cancel” the painstakingly negotiated agreement, a threat experts said was unrealistic. But his comments put a spotlight on its slow ratification and weak spots in President Barack Obama’s climate legacy.

这位共和党总统候选人上周发誓将“废除”这项经过艰难谈判达成的协议。专家们表示，这番狠话不切实际。但他的言论让外界关注到协议批准过程的缓慢，关注到美国总统巴拉克•奥巴马(Barack Obama)的气候变化遗产存在薄弱之处。

While Mr Trump could not single-handedly scrap the agreement — which Washington and Beijing had rallied more than 190 countries to join — he could withdraw the US, the second largest greenhouse gas emitter after China, or block the action needed to cut emissions to the levels promised by Mr Obama.

特朗普不可能凭一己之力废除该协议（美中两国已召集190多个国家加入该协议），但他可能会让美国（仅次于中国的全球第二大温室气体排放国）退出该协议，抑或他可能否决将碳排放量降至奥巴马许诺的水平所需的措施。

The Paris accord, hailed as a turning point in more than 20 years of effort to combat climate change, requires countries to set out plans to help keep global warming “well below 2C” from pre-industrial times. The Obama administration has vowed to cut US greenhouse gas emissions by 26-28 per cent from 2005 levels by 2025.

巴黎气候变化协议被称赞为人类对抗气候变化20多年来的一个转折点，该协议要求各国制定计划，帮助将全球气温较工业时代以前水平的涨幅控制在“远低于2摄氏度”。奥巴马政府发誓，到2025年时把美国温室气体排放水平降至比2005年的水平低26%至28%。

But if Mr Trump used the presidency to cast doubt on the need for climate action, he could weaken the resolve of other leaders sceptical about the deal.

然而，如果特朗普当选，并利用他的总统任期让外界对采取行动遏制气候变化的必要性产生怀疑，那么他可能会削弱对该协议存疑的其他领导人的决心。

Attacks on the Paris agreement could occur at three different levels under a Trump presidency.

如果特朗普当选，巴黎气候变化协议可能会在三个不同层面受到攻击。

Withdrawal from the pact

退出协议

No single country can “cancel” the deal because it would require each of the nearly 200 nations that negotiated it to agree to abandon it. Once the agreement is in force it is also impossible for a country to withdraw overnight.

没有哪一个国家能够独自“废除”该协议，因为它需要近200个谈判国全都同意废除。一旦协议生效，一个国家突然退出协议的情况也是不可能出现的。

“Even if Donald Trump becomes president he cannot pull the US out of the Paris accord quickly because there is a four-year withdrawal period written into the agreement,” said Michael Jacobs, a UN climate negotiations expert at the Institute for Public Policy Research, a UK think-tank.

英国智库公共政策研究所(Institute for Public Policy Research)的联合国(UN)气候谈判专家迈克尔•雅各布斯(Michael Jacobs)表示：“即便唐纳德•特朗普成为总统，他也无法让美国迅速退出巴黎协议，因为该协议规定了四年的退出期。”

“That’s not a coincidence,” he added, noting the timing matched the length of a US presidential term.

他指出这个期限跟美国一任总统任期一样长，并称“这并非巧合”。

However, the agreement is not yet in force and it is not likely to be by the time a new president is sworn in next January — a possibility that could leave Mr Trump with an easier get-out if he wins.

然而，该协议尚未生效，而且也不太可能在明年1月美国新总统上台前生效，假如特朗普胜出，他有可能让美国更容易地退出协议。

The Paris accord cannot take effect until it is formally ratified or joined by 55 countries accounting for 55 per cent of global emissions. So far, only 17 countries representing 0.04 per cent of emissions have ratified it.

巴黎气候协议要得到55个国家（总共占全球温室气体排放的55%）的正式批准或加入才能生效。迄今为止，只有17个国家批准了该协议，这些国家总共占全球温室气体排放量的0.04%。

China and the US have said they plan to join this year but they account for only about 40 per cent of emissions. Even under the most optimistic scenarios, the agreement may not start until 2018.

中国和美国表示，它们计划今年加入，但它们只占全球温室气体排放量的40%左右。即便根据最乐观的假设，该协议也不可能在2018年之前生效。

The US courts

美国法院

The fate of US climate policies is not solely in the hands of the president. The centrepiece of Mr Obama’s Paris pledges — an initiative to cut carbon emissions from the power sector — is hanging in the balance as its legality is weighed by the courts.

美国气候政策的命运不单单掌握在总统手里。奥巴马在巴黎气候大会上的核心承诺——削减电力部门碳排放的动议——前途未卜，因为其合法性由法院斟酌。

Because Mr Obama was unable to curb emissions via legislation in Congress, he has resorted to using regulations, which are vulnerable to lawsuits from states and energy companies that dislike them.

由于奥巴马无法通过推动国会立法来遏制碳排放，他只能依赖出台监管规定；如果对规定不满的各州和能源公司提起诉讼，这些监管规定败诉的风险很高。

In February a District of Columbia appeals court dealt the president a blow by ruling that the administration could no longer enforce compliance deadlines for the power plant initiative.

今年2月，哥伦比亚特区一上诉法院裁定，奥巴马政府不能再对火电厂动议设置最后期限，这对奥巴马造成打击。

The appeals court judges will hear oral arguments over the so-called Clean Power Plan on September 27.

这家上诉法院的法官们将在9月27日就所谓的“清洁电力计划”(Clean Power Plan)听取口头理由陈述。

But the case’s significance is likely to push it to the Supreme Court, which means a final ruling on the plan will not come until the next president is in office. He or she could also end up filling the top court’s current vacant seat.

但该案的重要性可能会让它打到最高法院(Supreme Court)那里，这意味着对该计划的最终裁决要到下任总统就职后才会做出。决定由谁来填补最高法院当前大法官空缺的，最终可能也是这位新总统。

If Mr Trump were in charge he could intervene by asking the court for a “voluntary remand”, sending it back to regulators who he could tell to render it toothless, said a veteran Washington environmental lawyer.

华盛顿一位资深环保律师表示，如果特朗普上台，他可能进行干预，要求最高法院将此案“自愿发回”到监管者那里，他可以让那些监管者把此案变得没有杀伤力。

More radically, the president could get it thrown out by telling judges the government had done a 180-degree turn and now agreed with its opponents. “That rarely happens even with a change of administration, but it’s not unprecedented,” said the lawyer.

更激进的做法是，特朗普可以告诉法官，政府的立场出现了180度大转弯，变得跟对方一致了，从而让此案作废。这位律师表示：“虽然这种情况很少发生（即便是在政府更迭的时候），但并非没有先例。”

Executive (in)action

采取行政举措阻碍协议执行

Even if the courts upheld Mr Obama’s plan to cut emissions from power plants, a President Trump could choose to disrupt it.

即便法院支持奥巴马削减火电厂排放的计划，如果特朗普当选，他也可以选择搅黄该计划。

With a co-operative Congress he could cut funding for the Environmental Protection Agency, the regulator in charge, or promote legislation to slow the initiative’s implementation.

在国会的合作下，他可以削减拨给国家环境保护局(Environmental Protection Agency)的资金，或者推动立法放缓实施该动议。

Or “he could signal to the states that their plans for meeting the Clean Power Plan goals would not be reviewed rigorously”, said Rhea Suh, president of the Natural Resources Defense Council, an environmental group.

自然资源保护协会(Natural Resources Defense Council)会长Rhea Suh表示，或者“他可能会暗示各州，他们为满足‘清洁电力计划’目标而制定的计划将不会受到严格审核”。

The power plant initiative is vital because it tackles the US’s biggest single source of greenhouse gases, accounting for 40 per cent of the total. But Mr Trump could also delay moves to stop methane leaks, curb vehicle emissions and promote energy efficiency.

这个电厂动议非常关键，因为它应对的是美国最大的温室气体来源，占到其总排放量的40%。但特朗普也可以拖延那些旨在阻止甲烷泄露、遏制汽车尾气排放以及提升能源效率的举措。

“Some of those things would be challenged in court, but . . . even if they were in some legal limbo he would effectively really halt our progress,” said Ms Suh. “The actual slowing down of things may in fact be a reversal in itself.”

Rhea Suh表示：“那些举措当中有一些将会在法院遭受挑战，但……即便它们处于法律上的放任自流状态，他实际上也会让我们无法取得进展。进展缓慢本身可能事实上就是倒退。”

Christiana Figueres, the UN’s top climate official, said the next president would need to examine the US’s economic interests and argued that shifting to a low-carbon system made sense for the economy and society.

联合国气候变化事务高级官员克里斯蒂娜•菲格雷斯(Christiana Figueres)表示，下任总统将有必要审视美国的经济利益，她还提出，转向低碳体系对美国经济和社会来说是明智的。

“The world is moving in that direction and if the US wants to remain competitive it needs to focus its vast technical capacities to stay current, if not ahead of the curve,” she said.

菲格雷斯表示：“世界正转向那个方向，如果美国希望保持竞争力，它就需要努力使用自己强大的技术能力与这股潮流保持同步，乃至走到潮流前头。”