盘点台湾反服贸抗议的输家和赢家

Student demonstrators have ended their siege of Taiwan's legislature, allowing a peaceful return to lawmaking and ending a challenge to President Ma Ying-jeou and his plans for a trade pact with China.

台湾学生抗议者占领立法院的行动宣告结束，立法院终于恢复了平静，台湾领导人马英九和两岸服贸协议所受的挑战也算告一段落。

But the three-week standoff over the ruling Nationalist Party's plans for a services trade accord - and, more broadly, relations with China - has altered the political landscape, sending a not particularly welcome message to the island's two main political parties, and to Beijing as well.

但这场因服贸协议和两岸关系引发的持续三周的对峙却改变了台湾的政治版图，向台湾两大政党和中国大陆政府传递出一个不太友好的信号。

Mr. Ma's Nationalists and the main opposition Democratic Progressive Party are both losers, analysts say, though to different degrees. China may have to change its tactics to win over hearts and minds in Taiwan, already a difficult task on an island that displays considerable distrust of Beijing and is increasingly fearful of the mainland's economic clout.

分析人士认为，马英九领导的执政党国民党和主要反对党民进党都是输家，只是程度不同而已。中国大陆可能需要改变策略争取台湾的支持，但考虑到台湾岛内对大陆政府极不信任，对大陆在台湾的经济影响力也越来越担忧，怀柔台湾绝非易事。

On Thursday night the last of the student-led demonstrators filed out of the Legislative Yuan after a final effort to scrub down the walls that had been plastered with banners and slogans opposing the president and the China pact. They had at least won a concession of some level of oversight of the deal stitched together by the Nationalists and Beijing.

上周四晚上，最后一拨抗议学生撤出立法院，他们在离开前清洗了墙壁上的反马英九和反服贸协议的横幅和标语。学生们至少赢得了部分妥协，政府承诺对服贸协议施加一定程度的监督。

The president may still get his trade pact with China - a key policy that he has pushed hard to get and one that is widely seen as a boon to the economy. But his disastrously low support in the polls has been dented even further as his party looks warily ahead at important electoral contests this year and in 2016.

马英九仍可能贯彻服贸协议，这是他卖力推进的一项关键政策，也被普遍视为对台湾经济很有裨益。不过马英九的民调支持率非常低，而且进一步下滑，他所在的国民党正忧心忡忡地等待着今年和2016年的重要选举。

'Relations between Taiwan and China have entered a new phase,' said Lo Chih-cheng, associate professor at Soochow University's political science department. 'They will become more complicated.'

东吴大学(Soochow University)政治学系副教授罗致政说，两岸关系已进入一个新的阶段，会变得更加复杂。

China has preferred to deal with the Nationalists, a party that has tried to find a way to keep important economic ties with China on an even course and avoid the bitter wrangling seen under eight years of Democratic Progressive Party rule prior to Mr. Ma's election as president in 2008.

Reuters马英九中国大陆更愿意与国民党打交道。国民党希望平稳地找到一条与中国大陆保持经济联系的途径，避免民进党掌舵的八年里与中国大陆发生的龃龉。2008年民进党下台，马英九代表国民党上位执政。

Beijing has reached out to certain more pragmatic factions within the opposition DPP that have acknowledged the key role of China's huge economy in Taiwan's own prosperity. But it will now find that the political scene is more fractured, with multiple players taking a role in the public debate on how to deal with China.

北京方面还向民进党内部的务实派伸出橄榄枝，这些务实派并不否认庞大的内地经济对台湾繁荣举足轻重的作用。但中国大陆将会发现，台湾的政治格局已经变得更加复杂，在如何处理两岸关系的公共讨论中，许多人粉墨登场，发表意见。

Meanwhile, the academic said, the Nationalists have lost support among younger voters, many of them backers of the students' tactics to block the legislature from approving the services pact.

这名学者说，与此同时，国民党失去了年轻选民的支持，很多年轻选民都支持学生占领立法院不让服贸协议过审的战术。

'The Nationalist Party is the big loser,' said Mr. Lo, adding that the president's efforts to arrange a breakthrough meeting with Communist Party leader Xi Jinping - as well as other accords with China before he steps down in 2016 - now look like 'mission impossible.'

罗致政说，两党之中，国民党是大输家。他还说，马英九想要与中共领导人习近平安排一次历史性会晤（另外他还想在2016年卸任之前与中国大陆签署其他协议），现在看来这已经是“不可能的任务”了。

Wang Yeh-lih, chairman of the political science department at National Taiwan University, agreed.

国立台湾大学(National Taiwan University)政治学系主任王业立对此表示赞同。

'The Kuomintang has lost an entire generation of supporters. There were not too many (among younger voters) to begin with and now there will be even fewer,' he said.

王业立说，国民党已经失去了整整一代人的支持者；本来支持国民党的年轻人就不太多，现在就更少了。

But both men argued the DPP also came up short in the standoff. 'They were not able to set an agenda. They are not leaders, but followers,' said Mr. Lo

不过，两人也都表示，民进党在这次对峙中的表现也不怎么样。罗致政说，他们没有设定议程的能力，他们不是领导者，而是跟随者。

The DPP chooses a new party leader next month as it prepares for important municipal elections later this year and the next presidential contest in 2016. Who takes the helm will be critical and voters will want to see whether the Nationalists turn to candidates that have not been too closely identified with China business interests.

民进党下个月将选出一位新的党主席，并且在为今年晚些时候非常重要的地方公职人员选举以及2016年的总统选举做准备。谁能赢得党主席选举将是一个至关重要的因素，而且选民们希望看到，国民党是否会推出与大陆商业利益没有太多关联的候选人。

And another factor to watch will be whether the student leaders opt to form another party.

另外一个需要注意的因素是，学生领袖会不会选择另外成立一个政党。

No matter what, the standoff has led to important changes, according to another academic.

另外一名学者说，无论如何，这次对峙已经带来了重要的变化。

'China might get the message that we place a rather high value on democracy,' said Liao Da-chi, of the Institute of Political Science at National Sun Yat-sen University. 'Perhaps the mainland will be alert to this.'

台湾国立中山大学(National Sun Yat-sen University)政治所的廖达琪说，中国大陆可能会得到这样一个讯息：台湾相当重视民主。他还说，或许这会让大陆有所警醒。